An Overview of A. T. Fomenko’s Empirico-Statistical Analysis

This article contains an overview of A. T. Fomenko’s ‘Empiro-Statistical Analysis of Narrative Material and its Applications to Historical Dating’. The work is published across two volumes. The first volume is titled, ‘The Development of the Statistical Tools’. The second volume is titled, ‘The Analysis of Ancient and Medieval Records’.

“the author investigated 15 basic chronological tables and 228 fundamental primary sources (chronicles, annals, records, etc)”
“texts contained practically all basic events from 4000 BC to 1800 AD”

Volumes 1+2 = 644 pages

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Volume 1 – 203 pages




Chapter 1 – Problems of Ancient and Medieval Chronology

1 (1.1-1.9) – The Global Chronological Diagram of Ancient and Mediaeval History

2 (2.1-2.12) – Computation of the Second Derivative of the Moon’s Elongation and Statistical Regularities in the Distribution of the Records of Ancient Eclipses

3 (3.1-3.3) – Traditional Chronology of the Flares of Stars and the Dating of Ancient Horoscopes

Chapter 2 – New Statistical Methods for Dating

4 (4.1-4.16) – Certain Statistical Regularities of Information Density Distribution in Texts with A Scale

5 (5.1-5.10) – A Method of Duplicate Recognition and Some Applications to the Chronology of Ancient Dynasties

6 (6.1-6.6) – A New Empirico-Statistical Procedure for Text Ordering and Its Applications to the Problems of Dating

Chapter 3 – New Experimental and Statistical Methods for Dating Events of Ancient History, and Their Applications to the Global Chronology of Ancient and Medieval History

7 – Introduction. N.A.Morozov and Modern Results

8 (8.1-8.15) – Problems of Historical Chronology

9 (9.1-9.5) – Astronomical and Mathematical Analysis of the Almagest

10 (10.1-10.4) – Archaeological Dating Methods

11 – Astronomical Dating. Ancient Eclipses and Horoscopes

12 (12.1-12.11) – New Experimental and Statistical Methods of Dating Ancient Events

13 (13.1-13.11) – Construction of the Global Chronological Diagram and Certain Results of Applying the Dating Methods to Ancient History

14 (14.1-14.4) – The “Dark Ages” in Medieval History


Volume 2 – 441 pages


Chapter 1 – Methods for the Statistical Analysis of Narrative Texts

1 – The Maximum Correlation Principle for Historical Chronicles and Its Verification by Distribution Functions. Analysis of Russian Chronicles

2 – The Maximum Correlation Principle and Its Verification by Frequency Histograms. Methods for the Discovery of Dependent Historical Texts. The Period of “Confusion” in the History of Russia (1584-1600AD).

3 – A Method for Dating Historical Events Described in Chronographic Texts, and Its Verification Against Reliable Historical Data

4 (4.1-4.4) – Methods for Ordering and Dating Old Geographic Maps and Descriptions

5 (5.1-5.19) – Frequency Distributions in Rulers’ Numerical Dynasties

6 (6.1-6.16) – Some Other Independent Proofs of the Existence of Three Basic GCD Chronological Shifts

Chapter 2 – Enquête-Codes of Chronological Duplicates and Biographical Parallels. Three Chronological Shifts: The Byzantine-Roman 333-year shift, the Roman 1,053-year shift, and the Greco-biblical 1,800 year shift

1 (1.1, 1.2, 1.3) – Frequency Characteristics and Enquête-Codes of the Historical Periods from 82BC to 217AD (Second Roman Empire) and from 300 to 550AD (Third Roman Empire). The 330-year First Basic Rigid Shift in Roman History

2 – Charlemagne’s Empire and the Byzantine Empire. The 330-year Rigid Shift. Comparison of the 4-6cc.AD and the 7-9cc.AD

3 – Chronological “Cut” in the Traditional Version of Ancient History

4 (4.1-4.5) – The 1,053-year Second Basic Chronological Shift in European History

5 (5.1-5.2) – The Parallel between the Western Third Roman Empire and the Biblical Kings of Israel. Enquête-Codes of the Historical Periods of the 9-5cc.BC. and the 3-6cc.AD

6 (6.1-6.2) – The Parallel between the Eastern Third Roman Empire and the Biblical Kingdom of Judah

7 (7.1-7.2) – The Medieval Song of Roland and the Biblical Book of Joshua

8 (8.1-8.3) – The 1,800-year Third Basic Rigid Shift in Ancient Chronology. The Gothic = Trojan = Tarquins’ War (=GTR war) and Its Chronological Duplicated in the Different Epochs of Traditional History

9 (9.1-9.2) – Egyptian Chronology

10 (10.1-10.2) – Some Strange Features of Ptolemy’s Almagest. Preliminary Remarks

11 (11.1-11.6) – Duplicates in Greek Chronology. The 1,800-year Chronological Shift

Appendix 1. Volume Graphs for the “Biographies” of the Holy Roman Emperors of the 10-13th cc. AD. Additional Chronological and Statistical Data of Ancient History

Appendix 2. When Was Ptolemy’s Star Catalogue Really Compiled? Variable Configurations of the Stars and the Astronomical Dating of the Almagest Star Catalogue

1 – History of the Problem and Subject of the Work

2 – some Notions from Astronomy

3 – Some Characteristics of the Ancient Star Catalogues

4 – Errors in the Coordinates in Ancient Catalogues

5 – Preliminary Analysis of the Almagest

6 (6.1-6.3) – General Description of the Method of Dating

7 (7.1-7.4) – Statistical Analysis of the Almagest Star Catalogue

8 (8.1-8.2) – The Dating of the Almagest Star Catalogue

9 – Stability of the Method

10 (10.1-10.4) – Dating of Other Catalogues

Appendix 3 – Dating of the Almagest Based on the Occultation of the Stars by Planets and Lunar Eclipses

1 – Introduction

2 – Dating of the Occultation of the Stars by Planets

3 – Dating of the Lunar Eclipses

4 – The Chronology of the Almagest

Appendix 4 – The Dating of the First Oecumenical Council of Nicaea and the Beginning of the Christian Era

1 (1.1-1.10) – A date for the Council of Necaea form the Easter Book

2 (2.1-2.5) – The Birth of Christ and the 1AD

3 – On modern tradition

Appendix 5 – The Well-known Babylonian Captivity and the Well-known Avignon Exile of Papacy


Subject Index

Index of Names

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